Spend Less, Fit Better: Budget-Efficient Scaling Law Fitting via Active Experiment Selection

## 📄 2604.22753v1 **作者**: Sijie Li, Shanda Li, Haowei Lin, Weiwei Sun, Ameet Talwalkar **分类**: cs.LG **发表**: 2026-04-24 ### 摘要 Scaling laws are used to plan multi-million-dollar training runs, but fitting those laws can itself cost millions. In modern large-scale workflows, assembling a sufficiently informative set of pilot experiments is already a major budget-allocation problem rather than a routine preprocessing step. We formulate scaling-law fitting as budget-aware sequential experimental design: given a finite pool of runnable experiments with heterogeneous costs, choose which runs to execute so as to maximize extrapolation accuracy in a high-cost target region. We then propose an uncertainty-aware method for sequentially allocating experimental budget toward the runs most useful for target-region extrapolation. Across a diverse benchmark of scaling-law tasks, our method consistently outperforms classical design-based baselines, and often approaches the performance of fitting on the full experimental set while using only about 10% of the total training budget. Our code is available at https://github.com/PlanarG/active-sl. 🔗 arXiv 论文页面 --- 训练大模型动辄烧几百万，预测它需要多少算力这件事本身也在疯狂烧钱。这篇论文把这个问题重新定义成了"如何在有限预算下挑最有价值的实验来做"，结果只用了10%的预算就能达到接近全量实验的效果——属于是用更聪明的方式省钱了，值得关注。

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